Could this be real?

It’s not often that I find myself remotely optimistic about politics or foreign affairs. But the recent Iranian overtures to the US and international community, I am cautiously optimistic that real progress could actually happen. While skeptics point out that potential nuclear talks could be a stalling tactic, there are two key factors that lead me to believe there could be an opportunity for progress on the nuclear issue.

1) The current economic climate forces political pragmatism

Iran’s economy deteriorated under Ahmadinejad. Inflation and unemployment soared. The return from oil prices doubling was wasted on cheap imports and easy credit. As a result, Rohani’s presidential success will be measured by how he addresses the ailing economy.

To that end, Rohani has moved quickly to take practical steps to confront the economic challenges. He brought in a cabinet of technocrats that are likely to advocate for freer market economic policy while broadening the tax base and seeking credit.  Rohani is reopening the Management and Planning Organization, which acts as Iran’s budget auditor and was closed by Ahmadinejad in 2007.

Nevertheless, Rohani’s actions to push economic progress on the domestic front will lose momentum if he cannot convince the US and Europe to lift their sanctions against Iran’s banks and oil. Realistically, the new president has a vested interest in a constructive nuclear negotiation with the west.

2) Syria’s instability directly threatens Iran’s power in the region
 Iran has been an ally to Syria’s president Bashar Assad, so his declining credibility is a liability for Iran’s regional influence. If the conflict in Syria spreads to Lebanon, it threatens to weaken Hizbullah, the Shia militia connected to Iran.  This would ultimately weaken Iran as a regional power.

It is in Iran’s best interest to leverage its relationship with Assad to support the current chemical weapons deal. This allows Iran to play a role valuable to the West as a regional power capable of influencing Syria to stay on track with the agreement. The end result of this approach ideally would be a more stable Syria, which would stabilize the balance of power on which Iran’s regional leadership lies.

Together, Iran’s pragmatic political climate and its regional power interests are strong incentives to seek a nuclear compromise with the US and Europe. While mutual mistrust in US-Iranian relations and the supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s decades-long commitment to anti-American policy cast skepticism over the potential for compromise, Iran’s current situation provides an opportunity to test the waters and talk. And considering the past eight years, that is cause for optimism, even if it is cautious.